Biden administrator faces a rebound in inflation and rebuilds better

2021-11-13 07:32:44 By : Ms. Jenny Zhen

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The experience of the last Democratic president presiding over a round of major inflation was not pleasant, and if the Biden White House had not been troubled by this precedent, it would not have attracted attention.

It can be said that rapid inflation can most destroy Jimmy Carter's presidency.

Of course, we are still far from the late 1970s, when the inflation rate reached double digits. But the latest data—prices rose by 6.2%, the largest annual increase in more than 30 years—should be a wake-up call for Democrats.

On the southern border and Afghanistan, President Joe Biden (Joe Biden) created or exacerbated two crises, and the latest data indicate that a third or even more serious crisis may occur.

Massive forces play a role in price increases. However, his policy plans tend to make the problem worse rather than better. In any case, the erosion of the dollar will stop.

For a long time, the White House’s response to inflation concerns has been domineering to dismiss these concerns. The White House mocked economist Larry Summers (Larry Summers) earlier this year warned that World War II-scale fiscal stimulus could “provoke inflationary pressures that our generation has never seen before.”

Contra Summers of Jared Bernstein, the White House economic adviser, predicted in April that inflation would rise moderately within a few months and then fall back to a lower level. 

Well, we are here, and towards the end of the year, inflation is indeed at the highest level of a generation.

Bernstein called price increases "temporary," a term used so frequently by people suspected of inflation that it turned into a parody. John Maynard Keynes famously said that in the long run, we are all dead, so in a similar spirit, everything may be short-lived.

As the economy recovers from the pandemic and production disruptions persist, the global supply-demand mismatch is driving prices up. At the same time, bottlenecks are disrupting the U.S. supply chain. 

Inflation in the United States is more serious than in other parts of the world, and Biden's agenda is obviously not designed for an inflationary environment.

With the price of natural gas and fuel oil rising by 50% or more in the past year, perhaps now is not a good time to launch a campaign against fossil fuel producers.

Since the country has received a lot of federal funds from spending bills in the past 18 months, it may not be a good idea to put a lot of new spending first.

As labor shortages and supply disruptions plague the economy, it may not be beneficial to continue to stimulate demand through various payments and subsidies while suppressing supply, either by making it easier for people to leave the labor market, or by raising taxes and tightening regulations.

Biden is now redefining his infrastructure and rebuilding better proposals to fight inflation, although no one mentioned this when conceiving or selling these bills in the past year.

Biden's best bet is that his toughness and push at ports and other points in the supply chain can have an impact, and over time, the company will unravel the chaos. At the same time, as supply catches up with demand, the global energy crunch may resolve itself. 

This may reduce inflation next year. Trying to persuade people to get rid of the reality of rising prices will not work.

If wage increases cannot keep up with inflation, workers are useless. According to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, from October 2020 to October 2021, the actual average hourly wage fell by 1.2%, and from September to October this year fell by 0.5%.

Whether prices continue to exceed wages may be the best indicator of the size of the Democratic Congress’s losses next year and the ultimate fate of President Biden.